Why we don’t estimate crowds
How many people attended last year’s iFest? How many will attend this April’s iFest? The answer to both questions is the same: we don’t know. There are three reasons we refuse to estimate attendance.
1. Others jack up the numbers so unbelievably high that an accurate count would make an honest assessment look paltry.
2. To play the bloated numbers game can get you in big trouble with the media.
3. To play the bloated numbers game can invite the general public to multiply that big number by the ticket price and, thereby, deduce that we are far richer than we actually are.
One sister event here in Texas once claimed that they expected 3.5 million visitors to their annual event (see, e.g., article)
They didn’t say how they knew in advance how they knew this amazing factoid. Their city population is not even 3.5 million. If anyone had bothered to do the math they would have found that.
1. There were nowhere near enough hotel rooms, porta johns, etc. to accommodate 3.5 million people.
2. The National Guard would have to be called out to control the huge mobs of people roaming the streets in search of sustenance.
3. Since this number of people exceeds the air traffic capacity coming into the city, there would have to be hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of extra cars on the road, which would mean gridlock at every intersection and a completely immobilized city.
To my knowledge no reporter bothered to ask the event to substantiate their 3.5 million visitor claim. That is why iFest decided long ago not to play the visitor-estimate game. It is a lose-lose proposition.